Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Term Structure of CDX NA IG

The term structure of MarkIt's CDX North America Investment Grade index, Series 12, shows some anomalies:


(click to enlarge)

A few months ago, the spread on 1-year protection (in white) was higher than 2-yr (amber), itself higher than 5-yr (yellow), itself above 7-yr (green) , itself higher than 10-yr (purple). Recently however, 5-year protection has been more expensive than protection at any other tenor. The most probable explanation I believe: a sudden demand of index protection to hedge portfolios, which typically is done using the most liquid maturity (5 years), drove that price up. The demand of protection in other tenors is less while suppliers are indifferent, creating this purely technical anomaly.

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