Wednesday, September 9, 2009

AMR: Are Credit Markets Telling Us Something the Equity Market Doesn't Know?

Typically, a company's stock moves in tandem with the CDS spread. As illustrated below for American Airline's parent, AMR, when equity (shown in white) moves up, the cost of CDS protection (in amber) goes down. And when CDS spreads widen out, the stock price drops.


(Click to enlarge)

In the case of AMR, this has been true for most of the past few years. Recently, however, the cost of protection on AMR has gapped out significantly while the stock has gone slightly up. It's not easy to see it on the chart given its time scale, but the stock went from the low $5's to almost $6 in the last few days, while at the same time the CDS spread kept widening. A temporary anomaly, or a message from credit markets?

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